According to Deadline, Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning is expected to gross at least $100 million in its opening weekend, which would mark the most successful debut of the entire franchise.

![Tom Cruise in Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning – Photo: Paramount Pictures]

As reported by Screen Rant, after Mission: Impossible 7 underperformed at the box office, Paramount and Skydance are pinning their hopes on Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning to set a new benchmark for the Ethan Hunt spy saga.

A direct sequel to Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning (2023), the upcoming film has been marketed as the conclusion to the entire franchise. However, neither Tom Cruise nor director Christopher McQuarrie has officially confirmed whether this will truly be the final chapter.

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Box Office Flop? Not Likely.

Picking up from the previous film, Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning will see Ethan Hunt face off against a rogue artificial intelligence known as The Entity. To defeat it, Hunt must reunite his veteran team and locate a sunken Russian submarine, which holds the only source code capable of destroying the AI.

The cast includes Tom Cruise alongside Hayley Atwell, Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Esai Morales, Pom Klementieff, Henry Czerny, Mariela Garriga, and Angela Bassett.

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Box Office Predictions Are In

Although there’s still over a month before its theatrical release, early box office projections are already generating buzz. Deadline reports that tracking firm Quorom estimates a $100 million domestic opening weekend, putting it on par with its competitor, the live-action remake of Lilo & Stitch.

If the prediction holds true, Final Reckoning would surpass the franchise’s previous record holder, Mission: Impossible – Fallout (2018), which opened to $61 million.

![Underwater action scene from Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, which Tom Cruise described as scarier than his plane-hanging stunt – Photo: Paramount Pictures]

While Final Reckoning won’t be facing a dual threat like last year’s "Barbenheimer" (Barbie + Oppenheimer), it will still be competing against several major releases.

The most notable contender is Disney’s long-awaited Lilo & Stitch live-action remake. During this year’s Super Bowl, a teaser featuring Stitch storming into a stadium went viral, racking up over 173.1 million views within 24 hours—making it Disney’s most-watched digital ad ever and the second most-viewed live-action trailer in the studio’s history.

Other upcoming competitors include Karate Kid: Legends (featuring Jackie Chan), Thunderbolts from Marvel Studios, and Final Destination: Bloodlines.

![Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning faces tough competition from Lilo & Stitch, Thunderbolts, Karate Kid: Legends, and Final Destination: Bloodlines – Photo: IMDb]

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Star Power and Fan Loyalty Could Be Game-Changers

Box office success will ultimately hinge on star appeal and franchise longevity with loyal audiences.

Screen Rant argues that Final Reckoning is unlikely to be labeled a flop like Dead Reckoning. The film’s marketing as the “final chapter” of the Mission: Impossible series—even without official confirmation—adds tremendous intrigue for longtime fans.

Coupled with the undeniable star power of Tom Cruise, the film may very well outperform rivals like Thunderbolts and Lilo & Stitch.

The trailer also showcases a slew of adrenaline-pumping stunts. At over 60 years old, Tom Cruise continues to wow audiences by performing daring feats—diving underwater to explore a sunken submarine, soaring through the air, and jumping from aircraft, leaving viewers in awe.

![Tom Cruise clinging to a plane in Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Photo: Paramount Pictures]

Despite its massive $400 million production budget, the Mission: Impossible franchise has a strong track record both critically and commercially. It’s likely the film will at least break even, if not turn a solid profit.

Moreover, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is set for a special premiere at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, making it one of the most anticipated titles of this year’s Palme d’Or season.

Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning is slated for release on May 23.